{"id":3020,"date":"2026-09-07T16:44:37","date_gmt":"2026-09-07T16:44:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/retrotradingreport.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/07\/ubs-sees-two-fed-hikes-in-2026-what-should-investors-buy\/"},"modified":"2026-09-07T16:44:37","modified_gmt":"2026-09-07T16:44:37","slug":"ubs-sees-two-fed-hikes-in-2026-what-should-investors-buy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/retrotradingreport.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/07\/ubs-sees-two-fed-hikes-in-2026-what-should-investors-buy\/","title":{"rendered":"UBS sees two Fed hikes in 2026: what should investors buy\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
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UBS expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice this year after a stronger-than-expected August jobs report<\/a> reinforced expectations of a resilient US economy. <\/p>\n

The bank now forecasts 25-basis-point rate hikes in both September and December, reversing its earlier call for no policy changes in 2026.<\/p>\n

The shift comes as markets reassess the Fed\u2019s policy outlook following stronger employment data and hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. <\/p>\n

UBS said the potential for higher rates could create opportunities across equities, bonds and gold, depending on how the economy and inflation evolve.<\/p>\n

UBS raises Fed rate outlook after strong jobs data<\/h2>\n

US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, well above forecasts of roughly 55,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. <\/p>\n

The increase was the strongest monthly employment gain since March and contributed to a rise in market expectations for a September rate hike.<\/p>\n

Financial markets were pricing in about a 60.4% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the Fed\u2019s September 15-16 meeting, according to CME\u2019s FedWatch tool, up from 59.4% on Friday.<\/p>\n

UBS said stronger labor data, alongside Warsh\u2019s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole symposium and rising inflation risks linked to supply bottlenecks, were enough to change its rate forecast.<\/p>\n

However, the bank noted that the investment implications would depend on the reason behind any Fed tightening. <\/p>\n

A rate hike driven by stronger economic growth would have different consequences from one prompted by persistent inflation and weaker growth.<\/p>\n

\u201cA Fed responding to US economic strength is very different from a Fed responding to inflation problems,\u201d UBS strategists said.<\/p>\n

Equities and bonds could offer opportunities<\/h2>\n

UBS remains positive on global equities despite the possibility of short-term volatility from higher yields. <\/p>\n

The bank said stronger rates would not necessarily outweigh medium-term factors such as artificial intelligence-related capital spending, resilient economic activity and broad earnings growth.<\/p>\n

The bank continues to favor sectors linked to AI, power and resources, as well as longevity themes, which it expects to benefit from stronger investment, productivity gains and structural growth.<\/p>\n

UBS also sees potential opportunities in government bonds. <\/p>\n

Higher expectations for the Fed\u2019s policy rate could weigh on shorter-duration bonds and limit their potential for capital gains.<\/p>\n

As a result, UBS said it would no longer recommend locking in yields in short- to medium-duration bonds as an alternative to holding cash. <\/p>\n

Instead, the bank sees opportunities in medium- to longer-duration bonds following the recent increase in yields.<\/p>\n

Such bonds could benefit if tighter monetary policy strengthens confidence in the Fed\u2019s commitment to controlling inflation, reduces longer-term inflation expectations or slows economic growth.<\/p>\n

Dollar and gold outlook remains mixed<\/h2>\n

A more hawkish Federal Reserve could support the US dollar, particularly if the policy divergence between the Fed and other central banks increases. <\/p>\n

UBS said stronger economic growth combined with tighter monetary policy could sustain the dollar through stronger capital flows and relative economic performance.<\/p>\n

Gold could face near-term pressure from higher real interest rates and a stronger dollar. <\/p>\n

However, UBS said persistent inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about fiscal and monetary credibility could support demand for bullion as a safe-haven asset.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe currently view gold more as a portfolio hedge and diversifier, rather than as a tactical expression of the next Fed decision,\u201d UBS strategists said.<\/p>\n

The bank therefore sees potential opportunities across several asset classes, while emphasizing that the broader economic backdrop and inflation trajectory will matter more for portfolios than the outcome of a single Fed meeting.<\/p>\n

The post UBS sees two Fed hikes in 2026: what should investors buy\u00a0<\/a> appeared first on Invezz<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

UBS expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice this year after a stronger-than-expected August jobs report reinforced expectations of a resilient US economy. The bank now forecasts 25-basis-point rate hikes in both September and December, reversing its earlier call for no policy changes in 2026.The shift comes as markets reassess the Fed\u2019s policy…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3021,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/retrotradingreport.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3020","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/retrotradingreport.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/retrotradingreport.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/retrotradingreport.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/retrotradingreport.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3020"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/retrotradingreport.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3020\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/retrotradingreport.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3021"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/retrotradingreport.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3020"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/retrotradingreport.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3020"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/retrotradingreport.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3020"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}