Brent Oil Drops 0.5% to $81.24, WTI Down 0.4%

• Oil prices fell in Asian trade, extending losses due to uncertainty over demand and higher U.S. interest rates.
• Brent oil futures fell 0.5% to $81.24 a barrel; West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 0.4% to $75.75 a barrel.
• Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and negotiations over a hostage deal offer limited support against demand concerns.

Oil prices took a hit in Asian markets on Monday, continuing a downward trajectory from the previous session. This decline is attributed to growing concerns over the demand outlook, which are exacerbated by indications of persistently high U.S. interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance has particularly dampened spirits in the oil market, leading to a roughly 3% decline in crude prices on Friday. This decline reversed the gains made earlier in the week and highlighted the fragile balance between supply and demand dynamics.

Brent’s Modest $2 Risk Premium Amid Tensions

Despite downward pressure on prices, geopolitical instability, especially in the Middle East, remains a backdrop to the oil market’s fluctuations. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, along with tensions involving the Yemeni Houthis in the Red Sea, introduces a layer of uncertainty. However, the geopolitical risk premium on Brent oil has remained modest, with only a $2 a barrel increase noted by Goldman Sachs. Even as the White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, reported progress on a hostage deal negotiation involving the United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Israel, these geopolitical factors have done little to sway the overall market sentiment, which is dominated by demand concerns.

Goldman Ups Brent Forecast to $87 Amid Cuts

The future of the oil market remains uncertain, with prices having fluctuated between $70 and $90 a barrel since November. Factors such as rising U.S. supply and concerns over China’s demand continue to counterbalance OPEC+ supply cuts and geopolitical risks. Nonetheless, Goldman Sachs has made a revision. Its summer peak price projection for Brent crude is now $87 a barrel, up from $85. This adjustment is due to unexpected stock draws following disruptions in the Red Sea. Moreover, the firm continues to anticipate growth. It expects oil demand to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024. Consequently, it has adjusted its forecasts for major economies like China, the United States, and India. This situation highlights the complexity of the oil market. A complex interplay of factors underscores the volatile nature of the market. Demand dynamics and geopolitical developments are steering the course.

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